Who scores first is not a coin flip.

Two things. The first is chance: ten starters take the floor, so a first-basket pick made at random is right about 1 time in 10, and a pick for a team’s first basket about 1 time in 5.

The second is the price. A first-basket prop at +500 implies a 16.7% chance, so that is the rate a pick at that price has to clear over time. The graded record shows how the model’s picks have actually done, market by market, so you can hold it to both.

Open the graded record

Every pick is published before tip-off or kickoff and graded once the game’s result is confirmed in our source data. A pick is a hit or a miss, nothing in between, and a pick with no confirmed result is shown as pending rather than counted either way.

Only live picks count. Picks reconstructed after a game are never in the record.

A record with the misses taken out is not a record. First-scorer markets miss more often than they hit, for every model and every bettor, and hiding that would make every number on this site meaningless.

Every graded pick stays in the public record, hits and misses alike, so you can judge the model on its history rather than on our word.

The day’s full slate with tip-offs and injuries, every hitter, team and player profile, the model’s complete graded record, the live first-basket and first-TD trackers, and one model pick a day per market. No card, and it does not expire.

Every pick on every board, not just the day’s top one; head-to-head intelligence on the Compare and matchup screens; the full graded history between any two teams.

Cancel any time from your account. No email, no retention call.

See Free vs Pro