Question 1

What is a first touchdown bet?

Accepted Answer

A first touchdown bet picks the player who scores the game's first touchdown. Sportsbooks list most of the skill players on both teams, usually at long odds.

An own-team first touchdown bet is the same question for one team: which of its players scores that team's first touchdown.

Question 2

How does FirstIQ pick a first touchdown scorer?

Accepted Answer

Each pick multiplies three things: how often the player's team scores the game's first touchdown, the player's own share of their team's first touchdowns, and how often this opponent gives up the first touchdown to that position. The highest combined score in each game is its pick.

Every pick is published before kickoff and graded after the game, hit or miss.

How the model works

Question 3

What counts as the first touchdown?

Accepted Answer

Any touchdown, in any quarter: a run, a catch, a return or a defensive recovery. The pick is graded against the game's official play-by-play.

If nobody scores a touchdown in the game, the pick is graded as a miss. Check your sportsbook's rules too, since some settle defensive and special teams touchdowns differently.

Question 4

What hit rate should I expect from first touchdown picks?

Accepted Answer

Lower than most people think, from anybody. Every running back, receiver and tight end on the field can score the first touchdown, so even the likeliest scorer in a game misses most of the time.

A model is doing its job if it beats the odds over a full season, not if it wins any given Sunday. FirstIQ publishes every graded pick so you can check that for yourself.

See the full record

Question 5

Are the free first touchdown picks really free?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The top pick for each game day of the week is open on this page, with no account and no card, and every graded game's pick is open too, hit or miss.

Pro shows the model's pick for every game before kickoff, and the full ranked pick lists behind them.

Free vs Pro

Question 6

When are the week's first touchdown picks posted?

Accepted Answer

Picks are published before kickoff each week. A game the model has not picked yet is marked as pending until it does.

First touchdown picks this week

NFL

Last week's resultsWeek 5 · 2 of 15 hit

The record

How a first touchdown pick is made

First touchdown questions