About FirstIQ
One model, one question, every pick graded in public.
Ricky Buckets
Founder and Head Wrangler of Green Beans
Ricky Buckets was born a ranch hand outside Dry Gulch, Texas, population 41, or 43 if you count the goats, and Ricky does. He got the name at age six, shooting a flat basketball into a feed bucket nailed to the side of the barn. He missed a lot. He kept every miss anyway, in chalk, on the barn wall. Granddaddy's rule: "A man who only counts his hits is lyin' to somebody, and it's usually himself."
On a ranch, first is the whole game. First one up gets the hot coffee. First one to the barn gets the good saddle. First one to the supper table gets a biscuit, and everybody else gets gravy and regret. So when Ricky found out you could bet on who scores first, he said what any reasonable man would say: "Well, I'll be."
He spent three winters working the numbers on the back of feed bills by lantern light. His horse, Freebird, kept him company, and so did his dog, Diesel, who ate two of the feed bills and most of a third. Who wins the tip. Who takes the first shot. Which defense hands out the first bucket like Sunday handshakes. What came out the other end is FirstIQ. When a pick hits, Ricky calls it green beans. Nobody knows why, and he will not say.
Ricky will tell you straight: most first-scorer bets lose, and any fella tellin' you different is sellin' something. The model just aims to beat the odds of picking blind, and every pick, hit or miss, goes up on the board where you can see it. Same as the barn wall.
Why first scorer
First basket and first touchdown are the props most bettors treat as a coin flip. They are not. Some teams win the opening tip far more often than others, some players take a far bigger share of their team's first shots, and some defenses give up the first score to one position again and again. FirstIQ exists to put those numbers in one place, for one question, before the game starts.
How the model works
Every pick is three factors, multiplied:
- Race probability: does this team tend to win the opening race at all.
- Player share: their own finishing rate, recent form weighted over the season.
- Position multiplier: how much this opponent concedes the first score to that position.
Picks are published before tip-off or kickoff and graded once the result is confirmed. Only live picks count, and the misses stay in the record.
What it does not do
- It does not guarantee a result. First-scorer markets miss more often than they hit, for every model.
- It is not betting advice, and it does not tell you what to stake.
- It does not hide the record behind the paywall. The full graded history is free.
Check our work
Open the graded record, see today's first basket picks, this week's first touchdown picks, the first basket and first touchdown stats and Free vs Pro, or compare FirstIQ with EdgeAI Sports and Dimers.