Monday, Oct 19
NBA & WNBA first basket picks today
The model's first basket pick for every game today. One is free, finished games are graded, and every miss stays on the record.
WNBA
- Pick pending
ATL @ GSV
12:00 AM UTC
The record
20.6%
36 of 175 · game and team picks · chance about 1 in 6
Every published first basket pick, hits and misses. See the full record, broken out by market.
How a first basket pick is made
Every pick is three numbers, multiplied:
- Race probability: how often the player's team wins the race to score first.
- Player share: the player's own share of their team's first baskets, recent form weighted over the season.
- Position multiplier: how often this opponent gives up the first score to that position.
The highest score in each game is its pick, published before tip-off and graded after it. More on the model, or see the numbers it starts from in the first basket stats.
First basket questions
A first basket bet picks the player who scores the game's first basket. Sportsbooks list most of the starters, usually at long odds, and the bet is usually settled in the opening minutes.
A first team basket bet is the same question for one team: which of its players scores that team's first basket.
Each pick multiplies three things: how often the player's team wins the race to score first, the player's own share of their team's first baskets (recent form weighted over the season), and how often this opponent gives up the first score to that position. The highest combined score is the pick for that game.
Every pick is published before the game and graded after it, hit or miss.
On FirstIQ, yes. A pick is graded against the game's first scoring play, so a made free throw counts.
Many sportsbooks settle first basket on the first field goal instead. The two differ only when a game opens with a free throw, which is rare, but check your book's rules before you bet.
Lower than most people think, from anybody. Ten starters can score a game's first basket and five can score a team's, so picking blind wins about one in ten and one in five.
A model that beats those odds over hundreds of picks is doing its job, even though most single picks still lose. FirstIQ publishes every graded pick so you can check that for yourself.
Yes. One game's pick is open on this page every day, with no account and no card, and every finished game's pick is open too, hit or miss.
Pro shows the model's pick for every game on the slate before tip-off, and the full ranked pick lists behind them.
Picks are published before tip-off on game days. A game the model has not picked yet is marked as pending until it does.