NBA numbers updated Oct 20, 2026
How to bet first basket
A first basket bet picks the player who scores a game's first points. Here is how it works and how to pick one, one step at a time, with the numbers behind each step.
How the bet works
Sportsbooks list most of the starters at long odds, and the bet settles in the opening minutes. A team first basket bet asks the same question for one team. Some books count only a field goal; FirstIQ grades the first scoring play, so a made free throw counts. Check your book's rules.
Step 1: who wins the tip
The team that wins the opening tip gets the first possession, and the first possession is the best chance at the first score. Start with the jump-ball matchup: which center wins it more often.
- The team that wins the opening tip scores the first basket 66.1% of the time (1,191 games).
- Best at winning the tip: the San Antonio Spurs (75.9%), the Orlando Magic (73.2%), the Phoenix Suns (70.7%).
Step 2: which team scores first
Winning the tip is not the whole of it. A missed first shot hands the ball over, so look at how often each team turns its chances into the first score. Every team's rates are on the stats page.
- Home court barely moves it: the home team scores first 53.2% of the time (1,231 games).
- The New York Knicks score first most often: 63.9% of 83 games.
- The New Orleans Pelicans win the tip 24.4% of the time but score first 50%: the first possession is only half of it.
Step 3: which player takes the shot
Teams often draw up their first play for one player. Look at each starter's rate, first baskets per start, rather than the count, which a long run of starts inflates. Every player's numbers are ranked on one page.
- By position: guards 43.5%, forwards 35.2%, centers 21.3% of first baskets.
- Most first baskets: Bam Adebayo, 17 in 73 starts.
- Best rate among qualified starters: De'Andre Hunter, 28% of 25 starts.
Before you bet
- Confirm the starting lineups. A player who does not start cannot score the first basket.
- Read the injury report. A late scratch moves every price on the board.
- Check the jump-ball matchup, the team's scores-first rate and the player's rate, in that order.
- Expect to lose most single bets. Ten starters can score it, so even a good pick wins only some nights.
The record
20.2%
36 of 178 · game and team picks · chance about 1 in 6
How FirstIQ's own picks have done, every hit and miss included. See the full record, broken out by market.
Today's picks
The model runs these three steps for every game. Today's first basket picks, one of them free, and every finished game graded.
First basket betting questions
In three steps: which team is likely to win the opening tip, how often that team turns the first possession into the first score, and which of its starters takes and makes that first shot most often.
Then check the starting lineups and the injury report before tip-off, because a late scratch changes every price on the board.
Most of the time, and clearly more often than not. The exact rate, and how many games it comes from, is in step 1 of this guide.
It is not certain: a missed first shot hands the ball over, which is why the team that loses the tip still scores first in a real share of games.
Very little. The home team scores first only slightly more often than the away team, so it is a tiebreaker at most. The rate is in step 2.
Guards score the most first baskets, then forwards, then centers, even though centers take the jump ball. The split is in step 3.
A team's first play is often drawn up for one player, so a guard or a big man who is the usual first option is worth more than the position alone suggests.
Because ten starters can score it. Picking blind wins about one game in ten, so even a good pick loses most nights, and the long odds are the price of that.
A pick is worth making when it wins more often than its odds say it should over many games, not when it feels sure on one.